OK, so far in August, the Phillies are 6-14 against opponents not from Milwaukee. That's not good. Throw in those 6 games against the lowly Brewers (who have lost 11 straight), and we're still below .500 (12-14). What's weird is that the team has scored more runs (140) than it's given up (133). Again, however, remove the games against Milwaukee from the equation and we're outscored 115 to 99. That should be good enough for a 9-11 record, which isn't exactly something that would still have us in the playoff race, but it shows that the team is underperforming.
Anyway, I guess I should be happy about a 10-0 win today, but it's become really tough to work up any sort of positive emotion about this team. What I'm looking forward to isn't seeing if the Phils can put together some sort of winning streak here -- face it, they're out of it -- it's seeing Gavin Floyd start against the Mets on Friday (assuming, of course, that the Phillies broadcasters weren't bulshitting us today in announcing that he'd be called up this week and plugged in Wolf's spot in the rotation).
Three in a thousand. Those, according to Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds Report, are the odds of the Phillies making the playoffs this year. They estimate that the Phils will need 90 wins to make it to the postseason -- with a record of 62-64 and 36 games left to play, that means they'll have to go 28-8 down the stretch. In other words, it ain't gonna happen.
Uh yeah, so anyone catch the Eagles game last night?
BTW, I've updated my list of Phillies weblogs on the sidebar of this page. If I've missed anyone, let me know. Oh, and another thing -- does anyone out there running Movable Type know of a way to prevent comment spammers? Talk about a pain in the butt.
Is it just me, or does it seem like Chase Utley should be getting a lot more playing time? I know that Polanco is having a good season and is probably a better defensive second baseman, but Utley's offensive numbers are clearly superior:
AB AVG OPS EQA Utley 215 .274 .815 .265 Polanco 366 .273 .726 .249
Another question: what ever became of all of that talk about trying Utley out in left field? I know he's probably not a natural at the position, but even if he were significantly worse than the competition (Michaels and Glanville), he still kills them on offense:
AB AVG OPS EQA Utley 215 .274 .815 .265 Glanville 142 .218 .540 .198 Michaels 166 .235 .691 .245
I don't know, sometimes it feels like Larry Bowa is operating in Bizarro World. To quote Jerry Seinfeld, "Yeah, like Bizarro Superman, Superman's exact opposite, who lives in the backwards Bizarro world. Up is down, down is up, he says hello when he leaves, goodbye when he arrives."
Postscript: Oh, look, there's an article about this very subject over at Phillies.com. There are some great quotes from Bowa and Wade -- cliches-a-plenty about "veteran leadership" and "clubhouse leaders" and whatnot. Blah.
I don't know about everyone else, but all day long I've been hitting "reload" on all of my favorite baseball news sites to see if the ax had been dropped yet on Larry Bowa. I guess it's just wishful thinking, though, because so far, nothing's happened. According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, the team's going to stick with him for the rest of the season and won't even fire him in the off-season -- "there are increased rumblings that Larry Bowa will survive, but there will be major offseason changes on the coaching staff". Blah.
There's an article in the Inquirer today about how the Phils aren't quite out of it yet, accompanied by a list of teams that were able to overcome deficits of greater than 4.5 games (the amount of games that the Phillies currently trail the Cubs, Giants and Padres in the Wild Card race) after August 16th since divisional play started in 1963. Sure, there are plenty of examples, but here's the thing: the Phillies don't trail one team by 4.5 games, they trail three teams by that amount. There's another problem: to be frank, the Phillies suck right now. The team's been decimated by injuries, the manager's worthless, the players aren't motivated, the bullpen's been blowing leads left and right, nobody can hit with runners in scoring position, etc etc.
According to Mike Lieberthal, "We should be at least eight games above .500." Obviously, Lieby hasn't been looking at the latest Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings, which indicate that the team's actually doing about two games better than their statistics would indicate (57-60 projected vs. an actual record of 59-59). The adjusted standings actually have the Phils in 4th place in their division, a game behind the Mets and Marlins.
I guess I'm being a tad pessimistic here, but to tell you the truth, after watching or listening to about 90% of the Phils' games so far this season, I really don't think that I can say that this team is even capable of putting together a 6-week stretch run comparable to the 1973 Mets or 1964 Cardinals (the only two teams to overcome 4.5+ game deficits and three or more teams in the standings). If we were healthy? Maybe. If someone else were managing? Perhaps. With the current squad of AAA filler, crappy acquisitions and dead weight? Not bloody likely.
Like a few of our favorite Phillies, I've been on the DL for awhile. I'm still sick, but getting better. Fear not, however -- I will be back. I am not, however, going to pull a Billy Wagner and come back before I'm ready. In the meantime, Doug Glanville will be taking my place in the outfield. Heh.