April 29, 2005

Cy Lieber?

OK, I know I said I'd update yesterday, but I was feeling pretty sick all day, so I never really got around to it. Sorry about that.

So, with being sick and all, I've been doing a lot of reading lately (if you catch my drift), and one thing I've been plowing through is the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. In it, Bill James proposes a formula for predicting the winner of the Cy Young award in any given league and season. The formula is amazingly accurate -- it predicted something like 81% of Cy Young winners overall and almost every one since 1990. So I figured I'd give the formula a spin and see how our very own Jon Lieber (and, why the hell not, Brett Myers too) stack up to the rest of this year's candidates.

First, though, the formula:
- Wins x 6
- Minus Losses x 2
- Plus Strikeouts / 12
- Plus Saves x 2.5
- Plus Shutouts
- Plus ((5.00 - ERA) / 9) x IP (note: this is basically the number of "Runs Saved" beyond what a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA would allow)
- Plus 12 points if the player's team finishes first in their division (note: I pro-rated the 12 points to the number of games the player's team has played this season)

The results for the National League thus far:

Player           W L SV SHO   IP  K  ERA  RS-5 Bonus Score
Josh Beckett     4 1  0   1 33.0 35 1.36 13.35  1.48 40.74
Dontrelle Willis 4 0  0   2 29.7 21 1.52 11.47  1.48 40.70
Mike Hampton     3 0  0   0 37.7 14 1.67 13.94  1.63 34.73
Jon Lieber       4 1  0   0 35.7 12 3.03  7.81  0.00 30.81
Chris Carpenter  4 1  0   1 33.7 27 4.01  3.70  1.48 30.43
Brandon Lyon     0 1 10   0 12.7  8 1.42  5.04  1.63 30.33
Mark Prior       3 0  0   0 19.0 22 0.95  8.55  0.00 28.38
Brandon Webb     3 0  0   0 27.3 17 2.63  7.20  1.63 28.24
Jason Marquis    3 0  0   0 26.0 23 2.77  6.44  1.48 27.84
Tim Hudson       2 0  0   0 28.0 19 0.96 12.57  1.63 27.78
Danny Graves     1 0  8   0  9.3  2 3.86  1.18  0.00 27.35
Chad Cordero     2 1  4   0 11.7 12 0.77  5.48  0.00 26.48
Jake Peavy       2 0  0   0 27.7 34 1.30 11.37  0.00 26.21
John Patterson   2 1  0   0 27.7 23 0.98 12.36  0.00 24.27
Brad Lidge       1 0  5   0  9.7 16 0.93  4.37  0.00 24.20
Roy Oswalt       3 2  0   0 36.0 27 3.25  7.00  0.00 23.25
Roger Clemens    1 0  0   0 28.0 32 0.32 14.56  0.00 23.23
Pedro Martinez   2 1  0   0 36.0 46 2.75  9.00  0.00 22.83
A.J. Burnett     2 1  0   0 30.0 27 2.40  8.67  1.48 22.40
Brad Halsey      2 0  0   0 28.0 18 3.21  5.57  1.63 20.70
Brett Myers      1 1  0   0 33.3 34 1.35 13.52  0.00 20.35
Mark Mulder      2 1  0   1 29.0 14 3.10  6.12  1.48 19.77
Giovanni Carrara 3 0  0   0  9.3  9 4.82  0.19  0.00 18.94
Billy Wagner     0 0  5   0  9.3 10 0.00  5.19  0.00 18.52

So, Lieber is 4th, Myers 21st and Wagner 23rd. Lieber's right about where I expected him to be, but I was surprised to see Myers so far down on the list. I guess that's because Cy Young voters have traditionally put such a high emphasis on wins. Give him Lieber's record and he'd be in second place (38.35 points). I was also surprised to see Wagner rank so high -- maybe because it feels like the Phils have had so few save opportunities this season.

Posted by mark at April 29, 2005 07:34 AM
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