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According to Baseball Prospectus' Win Expectancy Matrix, the Cards had a .429 win expectancy in this situation (home team, 8th inning, 2 out, bases loaded, down by 1), which essentially means they had a 42.9% probability of winning the game. So let's say Fultz gets out of the jam with the lead intact and Wagner comes in to pitch the 9th -- in this situation (home team, 9th inning, 0 out, nobody on, down by 1), the Cards had just a .165 win expectancy (or a 16.5% probability of winning). That's a .264 difference, which is pretty huge.
I'm not saying Wagner would have definitely gotten out of the situation, but he probably wouldn't have walked two batters in a row either. I don't know, so far, Charlie Manuel has not impressed me much.
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