Thanks to last night's rain, my chance to see Barry Bonds didn't happen. Of course, despite the fact that it had been raining all day, they waited until game time when everyone had paid for parking ($) and bought food ($$) and settled into their seats before calling the thing. Oh well, it's rescheduled for tonight and the weather will be much better, so I'm not complaining too much.
One side effect of the night was that I missed listening to the Phils put up an 11-spot against the Twins. 35 runs scored in their last 3 games, how nuts is that? Heck, the Eagles only scored 33 points in their first 3 games last season.
Anyway, the Fightin's take on former teammate Carlos Silva tonight, who's been surprisingly good since the Phils traded he and Nick Punto to Minnesota for Eric Milton, who's been a pleasant surprise as well. Here's a look at the two pitchers' lines so far this year:
W L ERA K BB HR WS $$$ Milton 8 1 4.28 55 31 13 3 9,000,000 Silva 6 3 4.26 28 12 7 5 340,000
That last column is the player's salary for 2004 -- this is essentially why the Twins traded Milton. The second-to-last column is Win Shares, taken from The Hardball Times. Kinda surprising that Silva would be more valuable than Milton, but I guess that goes to show you how hollow wins are as a comparative stat. One last note: it seems they docked Milton -0.9 Win Shares for his poor batting -- a disadvantage Silva doesn't have because he plays in the AL -- so the pitchers are a little closer in WS than it may appear.
Posted by mark at June 12, 2004 01:05 PMI didn't see a link to how they figure the negative Win Shares, such as those assigned to Milton's batting. I don't think those are in the original James formulas, and it seems odd to penalize poor hitting NL pitchers because AL pitchers don't have to bat.
That said, I don't think Silva's peripherals, .311 BAA against and K/9 ration below 4, make his performance likely to be sustainable. The big negative peripheral with Milton is the 13 HR, but a third (4) of those were in the White Sox game. Ignore those for the moment (he won the game after all) and his numbers look much more appealing. I wonder what that game did to his overall Win Shares calculation?
FWIW, Wolf's Win Shares have gone down in the last couple of days. I looked him up for something else and he was at 5 a couple of days ago and is now at 4. My recollection of the James formulas is that the relationship between offensive and pitching/defensive win shares was fixed, thus the total number of batting or pitching win shares shouldn't be able to decrease over the course of the season (as more team wins are accumulated), though the relative distribution could change. However, I looked up Abreu and Thome at the same time as Wolf, and they now have 7 more win shares than they did then, despite the Phils only winning 1 or 2 games (I'm not sure which) in the interim, which makes it seem as if the offense is gaining win shares at the cost of the pitching.
If that's so, Milton's number may look bad by comparison to Silva's because his offense has been better recently, which doesn't make a bunch of sense.
Posted by: Bill Liming at June 12, 2004 03:27 PMOK, I just went back and read some more of the Win Shares stuff linked from THT.
The offense/defense ratio isn't fixed, which has the effect of "stealing" win shares from the defense when the offense is on a tear and the pitching blows, but not so much as to lose games.
A side effect of this is that bad pitching performances by other pitchers can reduce the percentage of win shares allocated to the pitchers as a group (see Telemaco and Ramirez in the first Sox game, for instance), and hurt a pitcher like Milton, who's pitched fairly consistently.
Over the course of a season, it might make sense to split things up this way, but it seems odd that a run like the Phils have had recently, winning 2 of three with lots of hitting and just good enough pitching, would reduce the total number of win shares allocated to the pitchers, thereby essentially concluding that the pitchers weren't as good in the first 55 games as the system claimed they were 3 days ago.
Are Win Shares deltas just a really bad thing to look at in-season, or is this an indication of something else?
Posted by: Bill Liming at June 12, 2004 03:39 PMThat's an interesting question to ask -- I'm not sure James actually intended for Win Shares to be calculated in-season. I've got his book, so if I have some free time I'll look over it again, but I don't think I remember him addressing the issue of in-season calculation. Might be something to bring up with the THT editors...
Posted by: mark at June 12, 2004 04:53 PMI did, actually. And Dave, "Studes", agreed that it was a quirk of the system, and also mentioned that James had said this was one of the reasons it shouldn't be calculated in season.
Brings up another interesting question, though, which I also posed to Studes, but haven't heard back yet. What happens if you have a team that hits a ton, wins a lot, but gets by with largely mediocre pitching, say the Phillies of the last three games? Suppose also, that this team has one well above average pitcher, say Randy Wolf. Does this pitcher get screwed by the system assigning most of the Win Shares to the offense?
James had several examples in the book showing how team issues didn't affect individual win shares, presumably things even out over the course of a season, but it still makes me wonder about the basis for the whole system.
Posted by: Bill Liming at June 12, 2004 07:05 PMWell, it seems to me that if you had one good pitcher, his stats would shine though a bit when looking at the staff overall -- i mean, it's not like 200 innings of 3.50 ERA ball or whatever you consider a "good pitcher" to be wouldn't make at least a dent in the team's stats. 200 innings is about 13% of the team's pitching, so the good pitcher must have some effect...
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